Umno information chief Ahmad Maslan and former Umno secretary-general Datuk Seri Mohd Radzi Sheikh Ahmad have made their own predictions for the next general election. Whose analysis is more appropriate and whose is more accurate?
There
are common and different points in their views.
The common point is both are not optimistic about Pakatan Rakyat’s chances of taking over of Putrajaya.
The
difference is the former is optimistic about the prime minister’s ability to
defuse the political tsunami with its top 10 achievements, leading BN to a
major victory with two-thirds of majority; while the latter dares not to say
that Datuk Seri Najib Razak will bring a new prime minister effect to win a
two-thirds majority like how Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tun Abdullah Razak did
in their first election battle as the prime minister.
By
comparison, the analysis of Mohd Radzi, who is no longer in his official
position, has apparently left more hints:
- • Although he firmly believes that BN will be able to stay in office, he also admits that BN still needs to set off a political tsunami to regain lost constituencies from Pakatan Rakyat.
- • He pointed out that among the 16 Selangor parliamentary seats of Pakatan Rakyat, 15 of them were won with more than 20,000 majority votes. How is BN going to overturn it?
- • He bluntly said that the state seats lost by BN in the Sarawak state election the year before last are under the jurisdiction of five to six BN parliamentary seats. Therefore, the state is no longer a fixed deposit for BN.
Meanwhile,
Ahmad Maslan, who is also deputy minister in the Prime Minister’s Department,
is confident that BN will win. He has made a list of the top 10 achievements of
the prime minister and firmly believes that in addition to winning a two-thirds
majority, BN will also be able to win Perak.
Compared
to Mohd Radzi who said that “young voters and Chinese voters are a big problem
for BN”, Ahmad Maslan believes that BN has not only gained more support from
Indian and Malay voters, but also Chinese voters.
Therefore,
he boldly predicts that BN is able to regain five seats respectively from PAS
and DAP, and 10 seats from PKR. BN will then hold 160 seats in the Parliament,
which is far more than the two-thirds majority of 148 seats. He even claimed
that it was only a conservative estimation. In other words, BN might gain a
greater victory.
Ahmad
Maslan did not say which 20 seats might be recouped by BN and it should be
pointed out that his prediction was made based on the assumption that BN is
able to keep all the existing 140 seats. Is it in line with today’s political
reality? Is it too optimistic?
It
is an undeniable possibility that BN is able to regain some lost constituencies
from Pakatan Rakyat in the next general election. However, there are always
gains and losses in an election and thus, it is another undeniable possibility
that Pakatan Rakyat might take over some constituencies from BN. We should wait
and see whether it is BN that is able to retrieve five seats from DAP, or DAP
that is able to take over at least five seats from BN.
In
any case, some pre-election predictions are objective while some are meant for
propaganda. It is all up to you who to listen to and who to believe in! —
MySinchew.com
*
This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not
necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.
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